TrumPutin, the Mob, and Terrorism
Trumpism - Putinism, or rather the "TrumPutin", the newly emerged global socio-political beast (you can add to it "Berlusconism", "Erdoganism", "Duterterism", and other national varieties) rears its ugly double (or many-faced and many-masked) head.
Machismo, authoritarianism, greed, double dealings, criminal connections, and cheap but skillful populism and demagoguery are their common body. The Russian Mafia State and The Underworld International play their "Samson and Delilah games" with the West, using Trump as their "unwitting agent" and "playing him like a fiddle". These are the games of deception, betrayal, domination and conquest.
The slogan "make America great again", on the closer examination, as paradoxically as it sounds, is actually a populist mask covering up Trump's anti-Americanism, which along with other nationalisms, is the universal feature of this phenomenon. It was noted by many commentators that Trumpism as a political movement will outlive Donald Trump as a presidential candidate. It is imperative to examine its roots and implications.
The similarities in personalities, both general and political, of Trump and Putin, are striking. Theirs is what Theodor Adorno called the "authoritarian personality" ("a personality type that involved the "potentially fascistic individual") or what the Russian criminals call "avtoritet" ("the authority") or "vor-v-zakone" ("the thief-in-law").
Both Trump and Putin possess the same pungent bouquet of personality traits and styles with criminal tendencies and juvenile delinquency at its core: easy and frequent, habitual, artful lying (which they probably could not separate from truth themselves), lifelong skill of camouflage, "pathological narcissism", grandiosity, risk taking (gambling), superficial psychopathic charm, bullishness and brazenness, etc., etc. The difference between them is that Putin is more adept, skillful and experienced in politico-criminal matters, which would allow him to invisibly outsmart and play his bromance buddy "like a fiddle".
Trump-Samson destroyed the GOP, singlehandedly, alarmingly, tragically, destructively and self-destructively, acting not only as an "unwitting agent" but also as an unwitting and destructive Trojan, who burrowed his way into the country's social and political life and delivered the party which adopted him, blood drained, confused and incapacitated, on a silver platter to its traditional geopolitical foreign opponents. Very much in the style of the "Fancy Bears", his Russian cyber-patrons.
The Republican party will be reborn from this crisis and this bitter lesson. But Trump will not be able to destroy the country. This is the consolation. And with all this, he still is pretty much "unwitting" and still is unaware of the "inner workings" of not Russia only but, apparently his own.
Trump: "Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing!"
Mother Russia responds: "O.K., sonny, I've heard you; we'll do. We will do anything to get you elected, the whole world knows this. Don't you ever doubt me, my boy, yeah! Didn't I find a good new wife for you? And don't you worry about the costs either, we will put them on your credit account, you can pay it back later, at our convenience... Because you are my kind!"
Trump (pulling on $11M pinky "pussy bow", pensively): "Finally! I have nothing to lose except my capitalist GOP shackles! This is my last and the most decisive battle! The Oligarchs of the World, unite! Putin, if you hear me, leak, leak, leak! Leak more! Right on their heads! And keep whispering your sweet Melania somethings into my ears at night (just like this mantra: "Oh, wouldn't it be nice to get along with Russia, Trump-ik?"), it is like the two of them have merged into The One. It's so erotic, who needs to grab pussies anymore..." (See also: "machismo and latent homosexuality".)
At the same time, his adaptive capacity for change (the ability to be "reformed", among other factors, by the political-military establishment), has to be assessed also. His hypothetical need for this reform might also be viewed as the maladaptive psychological replay ("repetition compulsion") of the old drama. It probably was one of the key moments in his early and later life history.
The present and future historians and political scientists will try to analyze and understand the 2016 Presidential Elections in depth. It looks like some of the major contributing factors, among others, of the GOP looming defeat, are the "technical issues": Trump's lack of the personal and political maturity and professionalism, and his campaign managers' lack of the political acumen, in comparison with the much better prepared, experienced and strategically adept Democratic party operatives, in addition to the substantive issues: the nature and character of the political appeals of the candidates and the structures of their respective electorates.
Now Trump looks more like Laocoon, tied up in painful and torturing knots by the serpents of truth that he himself has unleashed. The looming defeat looks inevitable and well deserved, Trump managed to snatch his defeat from the sweet lips of victory, groping her habitually by all the intimate places; his fate was sealed by the Putin's kiss "that devil has known", it became the kiss of death.
Both Trump's and Putin's connections with organized crime are well documented.
"Security Analysts Issue Dire Warning: Trump Is The ‘Manchurian Candidate’ Of The Russian Mafia... The stunning article reveals that Trump’s connections inside Russia go far deeper than what has been discussed in the mainstream media to date, and along a much darker path."
"Putin’s power is founded on his links to organized crime. Putin has a close circle of criminal oligarchs at his disposal and has spent his career cultivating this circle."
"The Republican candidate’s links to Russia are a mix of bling, business and bluster spanning 30 years. The FT has compiled this account from a variety of sources, tracing Trump's fascination for Russia from its beginnings in Soviet times, through the Putin era to the US presidential campaign."
How should the future President deal with Russia?
"There will be no ‘reset’ with Russia".
"Russia is now a threat. The U.S. should treat it like one".
"The best answer to Russian aggression is containment".
On a somewhat deeper level, the question is, how to deal with the powerful and hidden forces that are behind the "mafia state", and I venture a guess.
Destroy or at least control the Russian - International "Mafia" - organized crime, in which Russia plays now a major role, and with which the Russian Intelligence services are most inextricably linked and intertwined, and use them as the conduit, the operational tools and the means of subversive activity, (hypothetically) from terrorism to mass shootings, war on police, and other "active measures" and "special operations", to covert and overt political interference, that we know and do not know about - and you will solve at least half of the problem. This is the area that law enforcement is the most familiar with and could be potentially most successful, in comparison with the direct counterintelligence work, which is complex, intricate, often operates outside the official realm of law enforcement, and should be left to the highly specialized and trained security services.
Do the mass shootings increase Trump's election chances?
Do the shootings of police officers increase Trump's election chances?
Obviously, these events, just like many other accidents and incidents, such as mysterious, still unexplained, train wrecks, toxic spills, fires, aggressive clowns, etc., etc., some of which look like the deliberate acts of sabotage, but with these explanation versions denied or minimized, are easily forgotten by the media and the public, in the absence of the published reports on conclusions or results of their adequate(?) investigations, contribute to the mood and the atmosphere of crisis in the country, creating the electoral politics of fear, anger, and rage, which Mr. Trump facilitates, amplifies and exploits eagerly. These and other issues make Mr. Trump the outlet of powerful mass emotions and present him as a savior and as a messiah, as a (phony) "law and order" candidate, while Mrs. Clinton is a true National Security candidate, with the firm, solid, unquestionable support from the leading figures in the US intelligence community, whose professional opinions Mr. Trump dismissed flatly, arrogantly and simple-mindedly, and also, probably, naively.
Do some outside players and forces, specifically, the Russians (and some others cannot be excluded) have a role in these events, as a part of their "Trump assistance package"? Given the inherent cynicism and aggressiveness, especially lately, of the Russian intelligence services, it would not be surprising. I wish that the Google search or someone who is in the know, would attempt to answer these very tough, very uncomfortable but very important questions. It would be logical to assume that if they went as far as hacking emails, engaging in the acts of cyberwar, etc., etc., they would not stop at carrying out other actions, which are, in a way, even simpler and easier to perform, and which, as they think, might help them to achieve their goals.
Many observers, most notably Gen. Hayden, have hypothesized that the Russian meddling in American elections is an act of retaliation and revenge for the perceived American interference in the Putin's third term election and the associated mass protests and demonstrations, unprecedented in their scope and participation. Their goal, they rightly say, is not to elect Mr. Trump as much, as to sow the nihilistic seeds of doubt in the American democratic system and process, to undermine the all-important trust in the American government and the system of governing. It seems to me, that this is a part of the long-term strategy of Russian planners: to rock the American boat, in the hope that it will eventually capsize: from the right of the Bush Jr. Presidency to the left of the Obama Presidency, and back to the right (as extreme as it can get) of Trump's candidacy. I think that their role in these two previous elections (Bush and Obama) still remains essentially and conveniently unexplored.
As a side and bitter thought: did Obama Presidency actually pave a way for Trumpism, not only as a reaction of voters to Obama (forever an idealistic and not so benign ideologue, trying to live up to Nobel expectations, with all his natural and sincere humanism, which cannot be discounted - the complex definitions are the parts of the complex truths), but as a result of the unprecedented erosion of social and cultural values and cohesion, and, most importantly, the unprecedented erosion of security, domestic and international, leading to the saturation of the country with the thousands, maybe tens of thousands of overt and covert Putinistas and other America-haters, propagandists, agents, sleepers, saboteurs, who were allowed to carry out their subversive work quietly and invisibly for years? The impression might be formed that Obama - Putin antagonism is just a surface issue, a deception; and that in fact they play into each other hands quite nicely. The examples might be the elegantly executed replacement of the DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who was critical of Obama, as the result of the Russian hacks, and the situation in the Middle East, where Obama's inaction and passivity allowed Putin to obtain the strategic and tactical advantages. Putin did not miss any chances to exploit his opportunities fully and undoubtedly intends to do it even more so in the "lame duck" remainder of the Obama's term.
The hypothetical, and hopefully just hypothetical, possibility of the street protests and attempts at "color revolution" (turning the tables on the opponents is, apparently, one of the most favorite Putin's devices), in the case if Trump refuses to concede, would also fit into the Russian planners' and Putin's strategy, and, probably, his most dearly held dream, despite bordering on the non-science fiction (the timely preparations would not be out of place, though).
As always with Putin, his or his strategists' actions are multi-targeted, the main target is the price of oil, which hovers around $50 for the past month or so. They still believe that ratcheting up the tensions, creating the never ending, one after another, series of crises, up to the blood chilling threat of the nuclear war (more of the deliberately designed showmanship than paranoid insanity? Who knows?), will change the trajectory of the trend (most likely aided by their constrained ability to play the market long, due to the lack of funds as the result of sanctions, hence continue and broaden them). He should be disabused of this notion, in the most decisive and consistent way and on the long term basis: $20-25 for the next few years will turn a tiger into a kitten and will teach him or his successors how to meow properly.
For Putin and his clan, potential President Trump would be a drastic game changer, a salvation from the sanctions and political isolation on the world stage and the most assured road to their political and personal survival, which, of course, is the most important factor for them. No wonder, they are so invested in this option. For America, I think humbly, the potential Trump Presidency is a clear and imminent threat to American system and values. How would you do business with the political mafia don of the "Mafia state", who intends to "play you like a fiddle"? You think that you will use him, but it is much more likely that he will use you, just like he used Bush Jr. and Obama for his purposes. Putin is a sworn enemy of the United States and the West, and I do not think that anything will change this position: it is ingrained deeply in his political personality and worldview. I will emphatically add my personal voice to the chorus of warning and condemnation, from both the right and the left alike (the ideological political sympathies matter little when the integrity and the future direction of the country and indeed, the World are at stake), and will say it again: "Donald, do not trust that man!"
Of course, the most troubling and poignant question, enormously important for the National Security, is: to what degree is Mr. Trump personally interested in the relations with Russia for his business dealings and the present and potential future financial gains? He denies these interests, somewhat half-heartedly, but this question remains essentially unanswered, although this possibility looks very likely, especially for the businessman of his stature, skills, connections, acumen, and moral values or lack thereof.
Kasparov, among the others, is of the opinion that the Russians possess some important "kompromat" on Trump, with which they are or will be able to blackmail him: "the Russians likely possess information on Trump that is at least as damaging as the revelations contained in the WikiLeaks releases have been for Hillary Clinton." This might be consistent with the reports that "Trump May Partially Revoke Anti-Russia Sanctions If Elected US President".
It started to look like the real social, moral, and political crisis of almost unimaginable proportions, unseen in recent history and recent elections, as many observers mentioned, and the unavoidable question is: how could it come to all this?
Several years ago, Ariel Cohen warned about the Russian "moral black hole" that threatens the West: "Those who keep calling for an engagement that will eventually transform Russia cannot see that it is the West, not Russia, that is being transformed by this contact."
The “moral black hole” of the Russian corruption on the highest levels is a threat to Global Security. It is a result of the Putin’s neo-Sovietisation of Russia, with all the inherited sins and self-destructive deformities of structurally and deeply criminal Stalinist Soviet system. The imperial idea of the Communist-Russian World Order came in 1917-29 as a geopolitical tragedy and in Putin’s 2000-16 years (counter-revolutionary to the Gorbachev’s genuine ‘revolution from above”) as a geopolitical farce, completing its perverted historical cycle and hopefully preparing for the eternal rest.
I am afraid that A. Cohen's warning went unheeded and his prognosis was correct. Of course, "it would be nice if the US and Russia went along", as Mr. Trump is so fond of saying, almost obsessively and on many occasions, as if reading from the Russian propagandists' teleprompter. The question is, on whose terms? Are Russia and her current leadership ready to get along with the US and the West in honest, sincerely, discarding once and for all the hostility and hatred, inherited from the Soviet times? It does not look like this at all. Just the opposite, it looks like they are "hell bent" on opposing the West every which way and turn they can, as they see it fit; it looks like they are determined more than ever to destroy and conquer the West, using all the available means at their disposal, including the penetration and subversion in all areas: politics, business, mass and social media, culture, etc. It looks like a truly multidimensional "hybrid" war, invisible but very real, the recent "invention" of the Russian military doctrine.
The Russian Mafia State's "moral black hole" is very willing, ready and eager to devour the West and to destroy its values, salivating at the prospects of the "new world order". Does the West still look at this threat and danger with the "eyes wide shut"?
It looks like the Russian intelligence (probably with Putin's approval or on his personal directions or participation) uses the age-old tactic: to penetrate and control the ruling elites and circles, and using them as proxies, to rule and control the populaces, countries, and now, indeed, the whole world. This tactic worked well for them in the former Soviet republics and the satellite countries of the Eastern Europe and some others, and was very effective in Russia throughout history, from the times of the Mongol yoke; and now they try to employ it again, expanding it to the Western Europe and the Americas. The recent revelations about Kristalina Georgieva, a former candidate for the UN Secretary General, and her ties with both the organized crime and the former Bulgarian Communist party and the security services is the case in point and the illustration. Putin wants to rule the world by controlling the elites, the Czar wants to rule through his mini-czars, and, apparently Mr. Trump fits this mold quite nicely, although he vehemently, if only quite unconvincingly denies that he is a Putin's puppet.
What are the roots of this phenomenon of "authoritarianism", descending historically to the times immemorial, from ancient Greek tyrants, to more recently, Hitlerism and Stalinism, among many other historical figures and examples, large and small?
Its association with criminality, in many aspects and respects, seems to be evident and even logical; it is a crime to deny and suppress the personal liberties of others.
Just by the way, Stalin was a direct product of the criminal world, in which he grew up, matured and acquired his skills which he later used in his political struggles, the main among them, the old familiar "divide and conquer". This circumstance shaped the Soviet Union and the history of the post-WW2 world.
What are the psychological and social underpinnings of this phenomenon of authoritarianism, and what are its vicissitudes?
Why does this political mechanism work so well in the countries like Russia, where Trump and Putin are supported by the majority, and why, hopefully, it will never work in America?
What are the political immunity factors?
Free speech, free press, pluralism, healthy intellectual honesty and civic duty.
Michael Novakhov
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