"And while it isn’t proof of anything, the pattern is at least consistent with a “shock” caused by a burst of negative news for a candidate, as opposed to a more gradual decline."
The statistical effects of the October 28 Letter
- by Michael Novakhov
- by Michael Novakhov
The statistical effects of the clearly significant (rather rapid, bullet-like) changes in the voters sentiments after the October 28 Letter pic.twitter.com/U0RXwzpLpG— Mike Nova (@mikenov) April 24, 2017
Federal Bureau of Investigation - NYT
"After the release of the Comey letter, Trump's favorability shot up six points. It's dipped slightly since then, but only by a few hairs. In over a year of campaigning, only one thing had a serious impact on the presidential race. James Comey."
Questions to the FBI
M.N.: Comey's overall "motivations" might be complex and and at the same time simple: the security of the country. The details of these complexities are not easy to read. A lot of specific questions could and should be asked, especially with regard to the "October 2016 Surprise", and the ridiculous (it is hard to find a different word) "Weiner sexting scandal", and the directly related Weiner's-Abedin computer email trove investigation. We still do not have an answer ("any answer" at this point, well or or not so well, substantiated and reasoned) as to how this enormous amount (650,000) of the e-mails (not just the casual after work reading) got in their laptop: who, how, and why dumped them. And if Weiner case was the FBI's so called "sting operation" (and the clearly politically motivated at that), and if the Russians or any other foreign (intelligence) entity assisted in damping these e-mails, then the questions arise, if there was any collusion, spoken or not, between the FBI (or its part, pursuing Weiner) and these entities. The question also arises if the "Clinton's e-mails investigations" were the deliberate and planned (and flawlessly performed) diversionary tactic: to deflect the attention and the resources from the FBI Investigation of Donald Trump, at the time a Presidential candidate.
It is also worth remembering that at that time, very close to the Election day, the rumors were spread, including the Russian propaganda outlets and the social media, about the impending and the inevitable Weiner's arrest by the NYPD, apparently planted by none else but Erik Prince, who was as reported, seeking the "backdoor" communications channels with the Russians. Mr. Guiliani's acute political omniscience, apparently fed and fortified by his old FBI friends, is also of note, and also fits the pattern of smoke from the camp fire. The appointment of the new chief of the FBI's New York Field office (considered, rightly or wrongly, a bastion of the FBI's Trumplandia) in July of 2016, at the strategic point of the Presidential campaign, relevant or not, is also a curious occurrence.
The statistical effects of the clearly significant (rather rapid, bullet-like) changes in the voters sentiments after the October 28 Letter can be considered as the practically established fact: see the graphs below. The most interesting detail is that this sudden, abrupt changes started well before the October 28, 2016 date.
This can be deduced from this graph based on the "Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll Oct. 24-27, 2016":
As is evident from this graph, the voters' sentiments started to change somewhere on October 20 - 24, probably in response to some pointed mass media campaign, which, as it is known, was facilitated by the presumably Russian cyber-bots. The letter itself might be just the contributing factor, synergistic with the adverse media campaign led by the Russian propaganda machine, of which the "Pizza-gate" was the latest offshoot.
The reversal point in the "Tone of media coverage" can be pinpointed to the October 16, 2016 date, when, after some compensatory waves, this "tone" continued the same pattern and the directions through the Elections:
The FBI - Comey's letter boosted this continuity in the directions of the "tones of media coverage", but did not initiate or start them, it looks like it was secondary in importance and significance to these general "tones of media coverage".
THE OBAMACARE NOT COMEY EFFECT - December 11, 2016
aca announcement october 24 2016 | aca announcement october 24 2016 and clinton ratings
"The speed and coordination of these efforts allowed Russian-backed phony news to outcompete traditional news organizations for audience. Some of the first and most alarming tweets after Clinton fell ill at a Sept. 11 memorial event in New York, for example, came from Russian botnets and trolls, researchers found. (She was treated for pneumonia and returned to the campaign trail a few days later.)
This followed a spate of other misleading stories in August about Clinton’s supposedly troubled health. The Daily Beast debunked a particularly widely read piece in an article that reached 1,700 Facebook accounts and was read online more than 30,000 times. But the PropOrNot researchers found that the version supported by Russian propaganda reached 90,000 Facebook accounts and was read more than 8 million times. The researchers said the true Daily Beast story was like “shouting into a hurricane” of false stories supported by the Russians...
The final weeks of the campaign featured a heavy dose of stories about supposed election irregularities, allegations of vote-rigging and the potential for Election Day violence should Clinton win, researchers said."
While the statistics of the Russian propaganda bots activities around that time could not be found but would be interesting to see, the descriptive accounts of its intensification during the last 10-7 days prior to Elections, as in the above piece, are quite convincing.
The graph on the top of this post illustrates the "statistical change in trump and clinton supporters after october 28 letter" (GS), as reflected in Trump's favorability ratings, most vividly. It also looks that the Comey's "clearance" 3 days before the Election day, was not reflected in any appreciable statistical effect. The "Intra-Trump" sentiments remained relatively stable after the elections, and started to diverge only in the beginning of April 2017, as is seen on the top graph. This might be an indication, that the cumulative effects of the Russian propaganda probably played the role more decisive than the "letters" per se. And the "blackening", negative propaganda apparently, sticks much stronger and longer, because the "embellishing, positive" white propaganda, is perceived as nothing of the ordinary, as something that is supposed to be this way.
The overall wave-like pattern was observed by the noted pollster, Nate Silver:
"Clinton’s poll numbers were arguably a bit inflated in mid-October amid a very rough period for Donald Trump. And even before Comey, the media seemed eager for one last twist in the news cycle, so Clinton may have been due for a period of greater scrutiny one way or the other — for example, over emails from the Clinton campaign released by WikiLeaks.
Trump should get some credit, as well, for having been comparatively disciplined on the campaign trail. He’s gained about 2 points in national polls since Oct. 28, while Clinton lost 1 point.
Still, if you look at our win-probability graphic, while Clinton’s chances were slightly declining already after she came off her post-debate peak, the rate of decline began to accelerate a couple of days after Comey, once we began to receive some post-Comey polls. Now the decline has leveled off, and her lead has held steady over the past several days. One advantage of having a model like ours that’s pretty quick to detect changes in the polls is that we can potentially make better inferences about the cause of polling shifts. And while it isn’t proof of anything, the pattern is at least consistent with a “shock” caused by a burst of negative news for a candidate, as opposed to a more gradual decline."
It is tempting to assume that the moods, the ebbs and flows of the voting public's preference sentiments are somewhat similar to the biological process of peristalsis, and to continue the analogy, are governed by the certain rules and habits of the mass mental digestion processes of the news fodder in their media cycles: it is slow, somewhat "autonomous", self-determined to a degree, and moves along the certain temporal - stretched out in time and the time-z sinusoidal patterns, with the interplay of the psychosocial tensions determining their shape. It is also similar to the sinusoidal, supply-demand tensions reflecting the movements of the stock prices, as the reflection of the mass psychology.
As N. Silver observed, Mrs. Clinton's "chances of winning", (which is a very different measure from the "intra-candidate" favorability ratings, as in the graph on the top), started to decline slightly after the highs of the "win" in the debates, and then, after the October 28 Letter, accelerated their declines rapidly,"consistent with a “shock” caused by a burst of negative news for a candidate".
Who and how managed this explosive burst of the negative and "fake news" about Mrs. Clinton?
In addition to these, many other questions including Mr. Trump's finances, and possible financial obligations, formal or informal, his conflicts of interests, his special warmth for Russia (a rather rare case of the pure and platonic love on the part of the businessman and the deal-maker), and many, many other questions are very much on the agenda.
Many good questions could and should al-zo be asked when Mr. Comey testifies in the closed session of the House Intelligence Committee this week, and al-zo for year-z to come. It is never too late to learn.
At mean time, I hope that James Comey and Mike Pompeo have a good time and enjoy the beautiful z-z-zunny weather in New Z-z-z-eeland and the environ-z-z-z.
2:45 PM 4/23/2017
"CIA director Mike Pompeo is among members from 15 agencies believed to be attending the conference and may well have been among those onboard the plane, which jetted in via Wellington."
FBI boss Comey arrives in New Zealand ahead of conference https://t.co/mSuHXW2fvH— Mike Nova (@mikenov) April 23, 2017
FBI Investigation of Donald Trump - 4.23.17 -
5:17 PM 4/23/2017 - Copy - FBI Investigation of Donald Trump - 4.23.17 -