Sunday, September 27, 2015

M.N.: The current and emerging Middle East conflict is a complex "proxy war"... | Current Headlines

M.N.: The current and emerging Middle East conflict is a complex "proxy war" apparently "without reliable proxies" but with multiple players and "hidden hands"... | Current Headlines - 4:12 PM 9/27/2015

M.N.: The current and emerging Middle East conflict is a complex "proxy war" apparently "without reliable proxies" but with multiple players, "hidden hands" (see this review: "And now, the new wave of terrorism by IS works to Putin’s advantage given his problems in Ukraine." - Paul Goble) and various intertwined goals and objectives. It develops along the Sunni-Shia and the Russia (in alliance with Iran and China) - West divides. As much professed military wisdom goes it promises to be a "long (perpetual?) war" and its final outcome and reverberations remain to be seen after the dust settles and blood dries up. The question is the role and the scope of the U.S. participation in the most rational and efficient manner within some (still fluid and emerging) international framework and with the minimal risks and expenses for the country tired and disappointed with this almost unmanageable  and almost senseless chaos and destruction. However, this chaos might be creative. The point is to help it to become creative and to try to see clearly if it is possible, through the fog of the present and sometimes rather confusing moment. 
The "suddenly" (and very conveniently for Russian strategists) popped up (and readily fanned by pics and drama hungry media) migration crises in both the Europe and the USA, together with the other attempts at social and political destabilization (the examples are abound and not so hypothetical) might also be, at least in part, the results of some hidden movements of the same invisible hand. 

"Мильоны — вас. Нас — тьмы, и тьмы, и тьмы. 
        Попробуйте, сразитесь с нами! 
Да, Скифы — мы! Да, азиаты — мы, — 
        С раскосыми и жадными очами!"

Can this "hand" or "hands" be reprogrammed? It might be easier and smarter than the simple and crude amputation (which might be impossible anyway). This certainly is worth a try, without any guarantee of success and with multiple and yet unknown risks.

"Tamer, 24, from Latakia, said that Russian-led military operations have already started, in apparent contradiction of claims from Moscow and the US secretary of state, John Kerry, that the posture of the new arrivals was defensive.
“The Russians participated in an operation with the regime last week,” Tamer said. “There has long been a planned deportation for the Sunnis in Latakia, and many of their houses were taken by the Iranians and Hezbollah. I believe this is the beginning of dividing the country.
“The Russians came now to rescue the Syrians because the opposition came very close to the Alawite villages in Jourin. They want to control that area because it is on a top of a hill and once they have it, they can control the valleys around it and secure them.”"

Russian planes bring fear and hope to Syrian city in Assad heartland 

"Looking at the vacuum left by Obama’s retreating America, Putin seeks to position Russia again as a key Middle East player. How gratifying for him to have Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu paying personal court in Moscow recently, in recognition of this enhanced role. Looking at the serial crises rocking the EU, from recession to Greece to migration, Putin hopes, as ever, to exacerbate and play upon European divisions. Looking at vulnerable borders from Estonia to Serbia, at the entire post-Soviet space including Georgia and Moldova, and at perceived Nato weakness, Putin sends submarines and nuclear bombers to dramatise his message: Russia is back. His rapid build-up in Syria is not, primarily, about vanquishing Isis, although Russia certainly has good reason to fear Islamist extremism. It is but a part of a bigger, ongoing international power-play fuelled by visceral hostility to the west." 

The Observer view on Russia’s military intervention in Syria

Vladimir Putin bids for major world role as his forces move into Syria