- Faiza PatelFaiza Patel is the co-director of the Liberty and National Security Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University Law School. She is on Twitter.
Paul RosenzweigPaul Rosenzweig, a principal at Red Branch Consulting, is a former deputy assistant secretary for policy at the United States Department of Homeland Security.
Allow Early Investigations to Be More Open-Ended
Paul Rosenzweig 12:55 PM
Could federal law enforcement have done more to prevent the recent terrorist attacks in San Bernardino, Orlando and New York City? Probably. Should they have? That’s a harder question since no suite of steps could be taken without some countervailing costs.
Tie them to significant indicators of a potential threat so investigations focus on situations reflecting reasonable grounds for suspicion.
To begin with, though, we should acknowledge that much of what law enforcement is doing already is working.
Numbers vary and are dependent on definitions, but something on the order of 90 terrorist incidentshave occurred in the United States since 9/11 — and fewer than 15 of them have been successful. Of those that did not result in damage, the vast majority were foiled by law enforcement before the terrorists came close to causing injury. Our record, then, is one of relative success. So the adjustments we need are more in the nature of modest modifications than wholesale changes.
Still, there is room for improvement — in particular, the rate of successful attacks is increasing in the most recent months. This appears to be principally because terrorist targeting and methodology is morphing to attack more soft targets — a trend we see in the recent New York/New Jersey bombings and also in the Paris café attacks.
We need to change our investigative rules to accommodate the new reality which, if it can be characterized, mostly involves the long-term process of slow domestic radicalization followed by a relatively quick ramp-up from dissatisfaction to violent action. This suggests that we need to revisit the F.B.I.’s domestic investigation guidelines. They are drafted, in large part, to reflect public concern with F.B.I. abuse and overreaching — and as such they put significant limits on F.B.I. activity. But the limits imposed no longer match the reality of the need.
For example, what the F.B.I. calls a “preliminary investigation” generally has a strict six-month time limit. It requires an administrative effort to extend such an investigation. Given what we are learning about domestic terrorism, those time limits (and their attending limits on the types of investigative techniques that can be used) are no longer realistic.
So, we should probably adopt terrorism-investigation guidelines that have a more open-ended time frame. We could tie them to significant indicators of potential terrorist threat — Rahami’s travel to Pakistan combined with his father’s warning would be good examples of qualifying indicia — so that investigations were focused on situations that reflected reasonable grounds for suspicion.
There is more, of course, but for now simply recognizing that the threat is changing is the first step. Would this have been effective in preventing all the recent attacks? We can’t know what the counter-factual would be. What we can and do know, is that as the threat changes our response must adapt as well.
More Surveillance Doesn’t Mean Greater Safety
Faiza Patel 12:55 PM
It is tempting to think that the F.B.I. should have done more to keep tabs on Rahami, Matteen and Tsarnaev. But we should resist the temptation.
Tracking more people is unlikely to make us any safer, but it would certainly result in open-ended investigations of thousands of Americans not suspected of any wrongdoing.
The F.B.I. has ample authority to probe anyone suspected of having extremist ties. As The New York Times reported, F.B.I. agents “constantly monitor chat rooms, the Islamic State’s Twitter accounts and other online traffic” to identify and track individuals who may be interested in joining the group’s cause. They undoubtedly do the same for other terrorist groups.
Tracking more people would lead to open-ended investigations of thousands of Americans not suspected of any wrongdoing.
The bureau can also open a low-level investigation called an assessment whenever it determines that there is an “authorized purpose” such as protecting against national-security threats regardless of whether it has particular information suggesting wrongdoing. Even a full investigation, which makes more intrusive techniques available, requires only an “articulable factual basis” that “reasonably indicates” someone is planning criminal acts. This standard is “substantially lower” than the probable cause required for a search warrant or wiretap.
Keeping files open when even these low standards are not met will only further burden a system that is already under pressure from too much information, most of it irrelevant. The vast majority of assessments come up empty. In a recent two-year period, the F.B.I. opened 82,325 assessments, of which roughly 4 percent justified further investigation. Only a very few resulted in prosecutions (fortunately, terrorism remains rare in the United States, accounting for a few dozen out of 14,000 murders per year). Nor should thousands of Americans be kept indefinitely under government watch when they are not suspected of wrongdoing, particularly based on vague notions of “extremism.” The First Amendment protects all speech because the founders understood how easy it is subvert democracy by branding dissenting voices as unacceptable.
We cannot know for sure whether the F.B.I. missed something in its investigations that might have stopped Rahami or the others. But we do know that violence of any kind is near impossible to predict. There is no profile of someone who becomes a terrorist or checklist of indicators. Things that seem relevant after someone has committed an act of violence — e.g., anger over government policies or increasing religiosity — are simply not uncommon. Hindsight is 20/20, real time is not.
Dig Deeper Into Government Files and Social Media
Paul Rosenzweig Sep 23, 11:00 AM
Hindsight is, indeed, 20/20. But to give up on the possibility of foresight and to reduce ourselves to the lament that violence is unpredictable is to despair and to let our fear of government overwhelm our faith in effective government action.
Before turning to some of the other effective measures that might be considered in the wake of the New York attacks, it is useful to pause briefly and ask why it is that greater F.B.I. powers are opposed. Perhaps one doubts their effectiveness, but the more likely answer is a fear of abuse.
There's no need for abusive measures. No physical surveillance, wiretaps or internet monitoring. Just a thorough look at what's known.
Given the F.B.I.'s history in the last century, fear is not unreasonable – but it misses that we are living in a different time. The robust oversight mechanisms now in place -- as well as the work of N.G.O.s like the Brennan Center who stand as watchdogs against misconduct -- make large scale abuse unlikely.
What more, then, might the F.B.I. have done? Consider what public reports say happened in the case of Ahmad Rahami. After his father made a claim of possible terrorist connections to the local police, the father was interviewed by the F.B.I, the terrorism task force checked public data bases and looked at the records of other federal agencies. They found the Department of Homeland Security record of his past travel to Istanbul (a jumping off point for Syria) and Pakistan, but they discounted it. And that’s it. After two weeks the assessment was closed. Even without the benefit of hindsight, we might question that process.
This is not the first time that we have disregarded the warnings of family members. And, as I noted above, the morphing of the terrorist threat means that we must attach even greater importance to the collection of intelligence through human observation. The father’s claim, even if indefinite in nature, ought to have prompted a review of Rahami’s social media posts, a deeper dive into why Homeland Security's automated targeting system had flagged him for inquiry, and a determination into whether the State Department or the intelligence community had records of his overseas activities of interest.
None of this would have been especially intrusive, or abusive. No physical surveillance, no wiretaps, no monitoring of his internet searches or private emails. Simply a more thorough look at existing records that were already in the government’s possession, along with a more searching examination of the public persona that he presented to the world.
None of this would have been especially intrusive, or abusive. No physical surveillance, no wiretaps, no monitoring of his internet searches or private emails. Simply a more thorough look at existing records that were already in the government’s possession, along with a more searching examination of the public persona that he presented to the world.
Perhaps after all that, we might also have decided to interview Rahami himself. If we are going to take the terror threat seriously, then we are going to have to put greater reliance on the warnings we receive from those inside the community, as a ground for action.
Would this have prevented the attack? That’s the wrong question, and it is one for which we have no possible answer. The right question is, looking back, do we think we took all the reasonable steps we could have? And, assuredly, in that context, there is more we might do.
In the long run, we need to develop a strategy to combat the long-range self-radicalization propaganda campaign of ISIS. Acting domestically is deeply problematic, given First Amendment concerns -- so I suspect that this aspect of our response will require action overseas by our intelligence agencies, rather than increased domestic authorities.
The F.B.I. Already Has Enough Latitude for Investigations
Faiza Patel Sep 23, 11:01 AM
I agree with Paul that law enforcement’s record in foiling terrorist plots is one of “relative success.” Part of that success is attributable to Muslim Americans, who have an exemplary record of cooperating with law enforcement; according to multiple studies, they have provided information on about a third or more of foiled plots.
Extremists have not been its only targets. Antiwar, antinuclear and environmental protesters have all been investigated.
But I disagree that we need to further enhance the F.B.I.’s authorities. To begin with, the guidelines under which the bureau operates can hardly be regarded as protective of civil liberties. They were issued in the waning days of the Bush administration over strong objections from civil liberties groupsto drastically expand the F.B.I.’s authorities, particularly by adding a new category of investigations called assessments that are explicitly called “unpredicated” – i.e., no factual basis required.
Paul suggests that the guidelines should have a more open-ended time frame where there are “significant indicators of potential terrorist threat,” such as Rahami’s travel to Pakistan combined with his father’s warning, to focus investigations on “situations that reflected reasonable grounds for suspicion.” In fact, the F.B.I. has this flexibility. F.B.I. regulations put no outside time limits on assessments, requiring only supervisory re-approval every 30 days (the assessment of Tamerlan Tsarnaev took three months). Preliminary investigations require only “information or an allegation,” and are opened initially for six months, but can be renewed for another six months at the field office level, and then again with headquarters approval (the preliminary investigation on Omar Matteen lasted 10 months). Arguably, even the standard for full investigations, which have no time limit – requiring only an “articulable factual basis” of possible threat activity – is lower than Rosenzweig’s proposed “significant indicators of potential terrorist threat.”
Open-ended investigations are not cost-free, especially for those who are active in social justice and political movements. While we mostly hear about the handful of people who crossed the F.B.I.’s radar and went on to violence, its recent targets include Greenpeace, the Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space, the Catholic Workers’ Union, antiwar protesters such as the Thomas Merton Center, as well as environmental and animal rights activists. The Black Lives Matter movement too has been the subject of law enforcement monitoring.
Asking F.B.I. agents to get supervisory approval to continue investigations seems a small price to pay to ensure that they focus where there is some evidence of a threat, and not on the variety of voices that are critical to our democratic system.
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New York Times |
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New York Times |
Can the FBI Do More to Investigate Suspected Extremists?
New York Times This suggests that we need to revisit the F.B.I.'s domestic investigation guidelines. They are drafted, in large part, to reflect public concern with F.B.I. abuse and overreaching — and as such they put significant limits on F.B.I. activity. But the ... |
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Variety |
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Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA), the ranking Democratic members of the Senate and House Intelligence Committees, have released the following statement on Russian attempts to influence the 2016 presidential election. The statement is also available here.
Feinstein, Schiff Statement on Russian HackingWashington—Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, and Congressman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, today released the following statement on Russian hacking:"Based on briefings we have received, we have concluded that the Russian intelligence agencies are making a serious and concerted effort to influence the U.S. election."At the least, this effort is intended to sow doubt about the security of our election and may well be intended to influence the outcomes of the election—we can see no other rationale for the behavior of the Russians."We believe that orders for the Russian intelligence agencies to conduct such actions could come only from the very senior levels of the Russian government."We call on President Putin to immediately order a halt to this activity. Americans will not stand for any foreign government trying to influence our election. We hope all Americans will stand together and reject the Russian effort."
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A clear sign that the Syrian government has returned to trying to stamp out the rebel movement and seize ground through military force.
Foreign Hacker Who Aided Islamic State Gets 20 Years in USby webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
A computer hacker who helped the Islamic State by providing names of more than 1,000 U.S. government and military workers as potential targets has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. Twenty-year-old Ardit Ferizi, a native of Kosovo arrested last year in Malaysia, was sentenced Friday in federal court in Alexandria, Virginia. Earlier this year, he became the first person convicted in the U.S. of both computer hacking and terrorism charges. Ferizi hacked a private company and pulled out the names, email passwords and phone numbers of more than 1,300 people with .gov and .mil addresses. The Islamic State published the names with a threat to attack. Prosecutors sought the maximum sentence of 25 years. Defense lawyers said Ferizi meant no real harm and asked for a six-year sentence.
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Financial Express |
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Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said Russia has been conducting similar exercises against the U.S. since the 1960s.
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Buoyed by Russia’s new influence in the Middle East, Chechnya’s leader hosted a high-profile conference on who qualifies to be a Sunni Muslim. Notably left out was Saudi Arabia’s religious establishment, sparking outrage and a brand new regional political rift.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani railed at the U.S. and Saudi Arabia for policies that he said have created division and chaos from Syria to North Africa in an address Thursday to the U.N. General Assembly.
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Newsweek |
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Newsweek |
Putin Names Close Ally to Head Russia's Spy Agency
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Reuters |
Philippines seeks Duterte visits to Japan, China next month
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Financial Express |
8 Russian Firefighters Die in Moscow Fire
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The main Kurdish insurgent group in Iran will keep up its guerrilla campaign against security forces “to protect and defend” Kurds living there, its deputy leader said, calling the fight necessary after the Islamic Republic’s nuclear deal with world powers.
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Washington Post |
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North Carolina Republican Congressman Robert Pittenger says the US welfare system is to blame for protests over police brutality.
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Warplanes launch new air strikes in Aleppo, hours after Syria's government announced an offensive to retake rebel-held areas.
We take a look at the biggest and most well-known recent hacks and ask what happened next.
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STRATFOR |
Ukraine says peace process at risk without EU sanctions
Reuters BRUSSELS Loosening the European Union's economic sanctions on Russia would wreck the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, because the measures are the West's only leverage over Moscow, Kiev's deputy foreign minister said on Friday. Next month, EU ... In Ukraine, a New Approach to PeaceSTRATFOR British Reporter's Diatribe At Maimed Captive Rankles KyivRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty Russia's Improbable Role in EverythingCounterPunch Sputnik International -China.org.cn -Interfax all 14 news articles » |
Ukraine Says Peace Process at Risk Without EU Sanctionsby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Loosening the European Union's economic sanctions on Russia would wreck the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, because the measures are the West's only leverage over Moscow, Kyiv's deputy foreign minister said on Friday. Next month, EU leaders are set to discuss the sanctions on Russia's energy, financial and defense sectors, which were imposed after Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014. Countries with closer ties to Russia, including Cyprus, Italy and Hungary, are pushing to lift some measures or even allow them to expire in January. "The Minsk peace deal is under threat. If there are no sanctions, there is no way to pressure Russia to respect the process in any way," Vadym Prystaiko said of the accord sealed in 2015 in the capital of Belarus. The Minsk peace agreement, brokered by France and Germany and signed by Russia and Ukraine in February 2015, calls for a cease-fire between Ukrainian forces and separatists backed by Russia, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line and constitutional reform to give eastern Ukraine more autonomy. "For now, Russian-backed separatists have agreed to a cease-fire. But with one telephone call, Moscow can reverse the situation," Prystaiko told Reuters. A September truce in eastern Ukraine has raised hopes for peace, although it failed to stem all the violence in the region. Shellings in the east of the country dropped to 246 in the first two weeks of September from more than 2,000 in August, Prystaiko said. The conflict has killed over 9,600 soldiers, civilians and pro-Russian rebels since April 2014. "There is no mechanism to prove that this peace process is working. The only way is for the EU to stick to what it has said: we lift the sanctions when Minsk is fully implemented," said Prystaiko, who met NATO envoys during a visit to Brussels. Moscow's allies in Europe, including Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico, say Russia is doing more than Ukraine to meet its obligations under the Minsk agreement. Fico told Reuters this month that the sanctions had not changed Russian policy in the east. Prystaiko said that was because Russia was determined to hold sway over Ukraine by pressuring Kyiv to adopt a federal system, in which each state would have a veto over Ukraine's hopes to join NATO and the EU. Reforms tied to the Minsk accord include changing Ukraine's constitution to decentralize government. Prystaiko said that Russia was seeking to distort that to achieve its own ends. "The Russians want a new constitution, they want to embed a foreign body in Ukraine," he said. "But we can only have elections when the separatists stop shooting.
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