Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Is Duterte another Chinese-Russian project? Is Duterte another US intelligence failure? Did China and Russia interfere in the Duterte election? Did China and Russia engineer Duterte elections?


After his rant at the U.S., Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte won’t be meeting with President Obama in Vientiane, Laos.


"Usefully for Washington, Mr. Duterte has a soft spot for Japan; Japanese businesses have poured investment into Davao. In Laos, Messrs. Abe and Duterte on Wednesday reached a deal for Japan to give the Philippines two patrol ships and lend it up to five surveillance planes. Some analysts see Japan playing a bridging role between Washington and Manila.
China will be watching the Abe-Duterte chemistry with consternation. For Washington, the best short-term hope may be a middle way between Mr. Abe’s tendencies to rile Beijing and Mr. Duterte’s to appease it."

Rodrigo Duterte Throws a Grenade in Washington’s China Strategy
Wednesday September 7th, 2016 at 7:15 AM

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SHANGHAI—In the Philippines, popular views of America veer between affection and pained resentment, rooted in a brutal colonial past; American conquering forces pioneered waterboarding in the country more than a hundred years ago.
Something of this history is captured in an epithet used by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, which cost him a meeting with Mr. Obama at a meeting of Asian leaders in Laos this week: putang ina in Tagalog -- “son of a bitch,” or more literally “son of a whore.” He was furious at suggestions that Mr. Obama would bring up his war on drugs, in which hundreds of dealers and users have been slain by police and vigilantes, as a human rights violation.
This kind of language is par for the course for Mr. Duterte, who’s famous at home—even loved—for his expletive-laden bluntness. He tossed the same insult at the pope.
Only the timing came as a surprise. It might seem foolhardy to offend your No. 1 protector and arms supplier when, as an archipelagic nation with a barely credible navy, Chinese armadas are pressing in.
This isn’t the first time that America has found itself exasperated with a populist politician at the helm of a close Asian ally. Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, created enormous headaches for Mr. Obama early in his tenure by visiting the Yasukuni war shrine in Tokyo, where Class A war criminals are honored, enraging China.
But whereas Mr. Obama’s challenge was to restrain Mr. Abe from going overboard in his provocations against China, with Mr. Duterte it’s the opposite: keeping him from getting too cozy.
Mr. Duterte is pushing a more independent foreign policy line that balances alliance commitments to the U.S. with a desire to restore ties with China that went into a deep freeze after his predecessor,Benigno Aquino III, launched a legal case in The Hague against China’s sweeping territorial claims to the South China Sea.
Mr. Duterte inherited a stunning legal win soon after taking office this year, but he seems unsure what to do with it.
He could insist that he will only negotiate with Beijing on the basis of the verdict of the arbitration panel at The Hague, which excoriated Beijing for building artificial islands in The Philippines exclusive economic zone. Or he could use the verdict as leverage in talks over sharing resources—fisheries and energy—off the Philippines coast. Or he could cave completely and set the verdict aside in hopes that this will unlock a wave of Chinese investment, particularly in his home region of Mindanao.
It’s hard to predict how Mr. Duterte, who later expressed regret for his rant, will proceed; China would love to snatch victory from defeat with a deal that makes the verdict virtually go away, though its hard-line diplomacy could turn Mr. Duterte into just as much of an adversary as Mr. Aquino.
As the longtime mayor of Davao City, say aides, Mr. Duterte never dealt with China but harbored deep anti-U.S. feelings dating from a mysterious bomb explosion in a local hotel in 2002. An American citizen was charged in that case but fled the country. Mr. Duterte smelled a CIA conspiracy.
In his outburst that scuppered his meeting with Mr. Obama, Mr. Duterte railed against America. The Philippines is not a “vassal state” or a “lap dog,” he said. “We have long ceased to be a colony.”
When America was building its alliance system in Asia during the Cold War, human rights weren’t much of a concern. Washington supported a procession of strongmen from Park Chung-hee in Korea to Chiang Ching-kuo in Taiwan and Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines.
But human rights are likely to be an acute and persistent irritant in U.S.-Philippine relations under Mr. Duterte. His war on drugs was his political signature in Davao, where he roared around the streets on a motorbike cradling a rifle. It is a wellspring of his national popularity today, and a deep source of legitimacy for a foul-mouthed leader who finds himself out of place among the Manila elites.
The U.S. is watching him warily. The Philippines is a key part of the U.S. “pivot” to Asia, aimed at pushing back against China’s building power: as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton launched the pivot on the deck of an American warship in Manila Bay. American forces, having been kicked out of Subic Bay naval base in 1992, a year after losing nearby Clark Air Force Base to a volcano, are now back in smaller numbers on a rotational basis.



Quotes: 

"Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua said that incoming president Rodrigo Duterte is ‘a strong man of principle’ who clearly exhibits the type of leadership that the Chinese government would like to work with to improve the bilateral relations of China and the Philippines.
Ambassador Zhao declared this during Wednesday’s handover of the donations from the Chinese Embassy in Manila to the University of Philippines regarding the losses of UP in the fire accident the previous month.
In fact, Ambassador Zhao is so eager to sit down and talk with the incoming Philippine leader about peaceful ways to settle Manila and Beijing’s territorial row over the mineral rich South China Sea that it believes the 2-year timetable laid down by Duterte before both governments can iron out their differences is actually too long.
“Let me quote what Chairman Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People’s Republic of China, had said: ’10,000 years are too long. Seize the moment, seize the hour.’ I would say that two years is too long. Seize the moment, seize the hour.”
And with Duterte’s expected assumption to the country’s highest position at the end of next month, Ambassador Zhao expressed confidence that the relationship between the Philippines and China will only “get better.”

"Political scientists will likely be mulling over the phenomenon of that election for quite some time. How did a prosperous island-state with a relatively robust economic growth rate (6 percent per year) make a sudden turn to the left?
According to economists, this island-state with a population of 103 million people located in Southeast Asia is currently one of the most dynamically developing countries in the world. The country’s economic growth has enabled additional social spending. Under acting President Benigno Aquino III, the unemployment rate declined to 2 percent a year, as he launched state programs aimed at cutting unemployment, reducing poverty, and increasing investments into core education.
However, based on preliminary results, the victory in the presidential election did not go to a representative of one of the political forces that have traditionally been in power in the Philippines – the liberals, conservatives or nationalists. Instead, voters chose 71-year-old leftist populist mayor Rodrigo Duterte, a member of the Philippine Democratic Party (PDP)-Laban. It appears that the combination of the growing degree of prosperity and a steadily high poverty level (about one-third of the population) played the decisive role in Duterte's victory...
During the summer, the new administration - the most leftist government in the country’s history - will take over in the Philippines. Soon we will find out what will come of anticipated changes in Manila’s domestic and foreign policies, and if they might lead to an opening for Moscow."

"Another similarity that Duterte and Putin have is that following their controversial statements, their psychological well beings were subjected to critical analysis.
According to a psychological report on Duterte obtained by ABS CBN News, he is suffering from Antisocial Narcissistic Personality Disorder. The analysis was brought to light during the annulment case filed by his ex-wife, Elizabeth Zimmerman.
Dr. Natividad Dayan, former president of the International Council of Psychologists, prepared the report. According to him, Duterte has a psychological condition characterized by “gross indifference, insensitivity and self-centeredness, grandiose sense of self-entitlement and manipulative behaviors; and pervasive tendency to demean, humiliate others and violate their rights and feelings."

"MANILA, Philippines — President Rodrigo Duterte said on Wednesday he is excited to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of the heads of state who have requested a bilateral meeting with him. 
"That I look forward to," he said, when asked about his bilateral meeting with the Russian leader in Laos.
Duterte was speaking before repatriated Overseas Filipino Workers at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 2 in Pasay City.
"I like Putin…We have similarities," he added."

DAVAO CITY — Russia’s ambassador to the Philippines met with incoming President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday evening and discussed with the presumptive President-elect ways to strengthen the cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Philippines.
Igor Khovaev who flew in to Davao City, said Wednesday that he was “deeply impressed” by Duterte.
“It was very productive,” Khovaev said in describing his meeting with Duterte.  He said their discussion would jumpstart a better partnership... 

With the continuing threat of terrorism across the globe, the Russian ambassador said that he and Duterte discussed ways to boost military cooperation... 
“What is needed now is to develop cooperation in practical terms,” Khovaev said"

Russian leader Vladimir Putin was asked on issues in Asia and tension relating to the issue on South China Sea and noted the elections coming up and though not an endorsement, mentioned one candidate and he read good things about Rodrigo Duterte saying: " In tough times or situation, a tough leader is best and when crime is rampant, punishment is needed. That Duterte they call 'the punisher'? I read about him, maybe he is what they need"

Image result for duterte putin

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"In August, while at a meeting with military officers, Duterte spoke with Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founderJose Maria Sison. Duterte said that he told Sison that he would run for President if the CPP's armed wing, the New People's Army, abandons its over-40-year insurgency, saying "Armed struggle as a means to achieve change is passe in the modern world we are living in today". Duterte disclosed that Sison was asking him about his plans for 2016 and that he told Sison that he didn't have plans yet.[17]"
"In recent years, Asia’s biggest geopolitical story has been the South China Sea, where China has brazenly constructed holdings in waters claimed by its smaller neighbors — including the Philippines. Current Philippine President Benigno Aquino III has refused to negotiate directly with Beijing, but Duterte has indicated that he’d take a conciliatory stance in matters concerning the superpower. He has mentioned the possibility of joint ventures. Most significantly, he has criticized the U.S. — the Philippines’ former colonizer and today its closest and most significant ally — for not better handling the territorial dispute in the South China Sea."
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